I am by no means an expert, but I have been following the San Elijo Hills market for the past 2 years in hopes to buy when the time is right. $500,000, even $525,000 for a 3200 sq ft in Venzano is a good deal. However, recent sales comps in Venzano around the same size could make someone like yourself a little worried; one sold for $505,000 3 months ago and another sold for $519,000 1 month ago. Take into account Realtytrac.com’s info and all signs point to holding out longer if you want the biggest bang for your buck.
Realtytrac currently shows 28 homes up for auction and an additional 7 in pre-forclosure up in the neighborhoods surrounding Venzano, and I count 12 more auctions and 8 more pre-forclosures in the neighborhoods at the bottom of San Elijo (this is not counting the condos, Old Creek Ranch, or Mahogany). However, I only saw 1 auction in Venzano (probably yours) and no pre-forclosures pending. That may say something about Venzano’s ability to maintain a higher price than the other neighborhoods. With that said, I still think that another 10% decrease in San Elijo Hills in the next couple years is not unreasonable. There is just way too much distressed inventory (seen and unseen) and not enough buyers.
However, I agree with the other person who commented that if you love the home, it is affordable to you, and you plan on living there for a long time then you should buy it. But, if you want to squeeze as much money out of it as you can, then I would advise you to wait at least another year while the plethora of distressed inventory sell and in turn brings the prices down even lower. I’m counting on jumping in early Spring 2012.
There are no easy answers, but I wish you the best of luck. Please keep us posted as to what you decided to do.
