I am buying a house now for my newly retired parents to move to SD and to have a quieter area for my son. It could be a good time to buy, we had a price drop/rate spike in 2018-2019 that turned out to be a good entry point.
I certainly wouldn’t buy now as an investment given I already own 3 and am over invented in RE.
Best investment right now, by far IMO, are oil stocks. Pretty much any of them.
My portfolio now is about 1/3 oil stocks and I will go higher without hesitation on any dips. I also like coal stock BTU.
The downside on oil stocks IMO is about 25%, and that requires a recession to happen. OPEC will cut production if needed to maintain prices. And gas prices are at insane levels outside of producing and exporting nations like the USA.
Any dips I believe will be snapped up by shellshocked importers.
The upside for oil stocks is they right now have about P/E’s of about 5 based on Q2 oil prices. If they are sustained they will rise and do share buybacks and roughly double.
And less likely but very very possible scenario is 200+ oil and $15 NYMEX gas. That would result in oil majors like XOM probably quadrupling.
$200 sounds high but really isn’t when adjusted for income growth, lower energy intensity of GDP, and inflation. Obviously some sectors would hurt and consumers would grumble, but there wouldn’t be much demand reduction or 1970s level recessionary shock.
Now looking 5-10 years out, I think local RE will be a fine investment now. But at 6+ rates, prices are gonna drop another 5-10% to roughly 18-20% below their early 2022 peak.
