I moved from South OC to metro Boston 3 years ago (job promotion). I work in sales for a Fortune 100 high tech company. I have a wife and 1 child, and make ~$150K (one income). We own here.
First, some statistics on the town I live in now:
Population: 25K
Avg household income: $95K
% adults >25 yrs with a minimum of a BS/BA: 49.5%
Avg house price: ~$500K
The only downside is that it is COLD in the winter, but the quality of education, number of educated people (all my neighbors!), cheap housing and Bay area-level salaries make moving back a tough decision. Being from LA, graduating from USC and living in SoCal my whole life, I miss the action. Here though, my boy could choose from Philips Exeter or Philips Andover or phenomenal public schools, likely giving him a better chance at the Ivies than 95% of CA public schools. He also has the advantage of my wife staying home with him, as I don’t need her income to pay our mortgage.
That said, we will likely be moving back in 1-2 years, and I am salivating at the market conditions we will encounter. Why? Because the vast majority of purchasers in OC and SD bought their houses in the last 2-3 years with nowhere near the income to qualify for conventional 30 yr loans in a tight credit environment. What do you call some joker making $80K a year taking on a $500K mortgage (and most are much larger)? An uninformed gambler. Talking to a friend that has been an OC mortgage broker for 13 yrs, these income/debt levels are the norm. I asked if she’s seeing $200-250K in annual income for a $600K mortgage. She laughed. The sad truth is that OC and SD lack, for the most part, high paying corporate jobs that require a degree or advanced degree. When 18% of the population could be one bad quarter away from selling used cars (all the RE people) one can see the makings of a localized economic depression. It reminds me of that clasic Doors song “Blood on the Streets”, except that instead of “the town of New Haven” or “Fantastic LA” substitute “OC and San Diego”. LA and SF/SJC have a much larger base of high-paying jobs that are non-RE related, and will likely be more resilient markets.
