I agree with your central thesis, that in recent days McCain has moved from being “highly unlikely” to win the electoral and popular vote, to merely “unlikely”.
However, looking at electoral math, Obama doesn’t need to do much better than John Kerry did to win. If he holds all the Kerry states (likely – even PA is polling closer to +7/8% Obama), he only needs to win NM, IA and CO, all states he’s polling extremely well in. If he wins either Ohio OR Florida Obama wins (both possible, as both are statistical ties). Oh, and he’s leading in Virginia (although not by much over the margin of error).
The polls could be wrong. The election isn’t over until it is over. “Likely voters” is always a dicey subject. There’s always a chance of complacency. But there’s also the chance of people wanting to vote for a winner, or not bothering to vote for someone who is percieved as having little chance of victory.
Undecided voters do seem to be breaking slightly in favor of McCain, cutting some of Obama’s leads. But I’ll be SHOCKED if Obama doesn’t end up winning Tuesday night, and possibly having it wrapped up before polls close here in California.
