If, instead of war/sanctions etc, Iraq and Iran were somehow well integrated into oil markets (just like Saudis, Russia, Libya, Venizuela who are no angels either!), the oil price can easily come down to $50 per bbl. A lot of pricing potential is at the margins.
Our leaders are fighting to save us 12 cents of tax when we are probably paying $2 too much for our foreign policy incompetence.