Homebuilder valuations are low, and they’re sitting on lots of cash. Value investor Bill Miller just loaded up on them. WIth shorts and puts, don’t you need precision on the timing and amount of the drop? I think they’re already discounted, and we don’t know how much they can improve their position by consolidating, share buybacks, land selloffs, and other gimmicks. Too risky for me, since I’m not a sophisticated trader, and I see what can go wrong with a trade like this, even though the idea is good.