Historically, markets don’t stay high for long when the entire bull case is “hoping for another rate cut.”
I agree that there is certainly downside risk in the market based on decaying economic conditions. But I am not genius enough to predict the outcome. However, I disagree with the opinion that the stock market is currently “high”. Even after the recent run-up, the P/E for the S&P 500 is currently about 14.9. That’s about the average over the past 125 years.
I also don’t think the entire bull case is built on “hoping for another rate cut”. That point of view is simply the daily media chatter for explaining yesterday’s market fluctuation.
