I chose not to alter the real definition (just to support my point more strongly) which did include the word "certain".
"to consider probable or certain"
Don't you leave out the other word there, which is "probable" just to support your point.
You also illustrated my real point (much better than I did actually) which is that the term the analyst (hey, I used it right!) used, "at risk" was too vague and left open the opportunity for PS (and others) to use the 100% part of that risk assessment. Was it technically correct to assume that outcome could occur? Well, yes. Is it probable? I doubt it.
It was just the fact that people were killing her on the point when on the extreme technical side of the argument, she was actually within her rights to do that (even if it is "spin").
