Bretton Woods II is on its last legs and cannot possibly survive. The only thing we do not know is the timeframe. The global monetary system could collapse next month, next year, or central bankers might manage to keep it together for another five years.
Meanwhile the Grand Experiment Continues. And as central bankers worldwide continue their coordinated competitive currency debasement silliness, one beneficiary is likely to be gold.
Russia is preparing.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/375364.htm
The Kremlin published its priorities Monday for an upcoming meeting of the G20, calling for the creation of a supranational reserve currency to be issued by international institutions as part of a reform of the global financial system.
The International Monetary Fund should investigate the possible creation of a new reserve currency, widening the list of reserve currencies or using its already existing Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, as a “superreserve currency accepted by the whole of the international community,” the Kremlin said in a statement issued on its web site.
The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries.
The Kremlin has persistently criticized the dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency and has lowered its own dollar holdings in the last few years. Both President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have repeatedly called for the ruble to be used as a regional reserve currency, although the idea has received little support outside of Russia.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/funding-nightmare-us/15148
The most recent TIC report for January 2009 is nothing short of a disaster for US borrowing plans and indicates that some very interesting times are dead ahead. Here’s the latest report, with my comments in bold:
Washington —The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2009. The next release, which will report on data for February 2009, is scheduled for April 15, 2009.
Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were negative $43.0 billion. This means that foreigners were selling both long dated bonds and equities.
Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were negative $18.8 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were negative $10.2 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were negative $8.5 billion.
U.S. residents purchased a net $24.2 billion of long-term foreign securities.
Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been negative $60.9 billion. Wow! This is by far the most negative reading for this number that I can find in the data series. This means that foreigners, rather than investing in the US, have been taking their money home in a big way.
Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities increased $30.9 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $15.4 billion. This one is a stunner. See the image below for further clarification. This says that foreigners have been net sellers of Treasury bills. This is simply the most unusual data point I can imagine considering that every US auction of Treasury bills in January were “over subscribed.” Now I am wondering just where the domestic demand for all that buying came from?
Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents decreased $118.9 billion. I think this means foreigners closing out bank accounts and taking the money home, but I am not entirely sure. I’ll have to look into how this number is derived.
Monthly net TIC flows were negative $148.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $158.1 billion, and net foreign official flows were $9.2 billion. This reveals that where private parties were pulling money out of the US, foreign central banks (“official flows”) were still propping up the US financial markets. For how much longer, one wonders?
China is getting a little nervous http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19992.html Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao expressed concern Friday about the safety of all the United States debt his country has purchased.
“President Obama and his new government have adopted a series of measures to deal with the financial crisis. We have expectations as to the effects of these measures,” the Chinese leader said following a meeting in London, according to the New York Times.
“We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried,” he said.