Here is good write up from John Mauldin this week that I think accurately reflects what we can expect.
“The Slow Motion Recession
Last October 5, I wrote a letter called The Slow Motion Recession. The basic premise then and in this space since then has been that we are either in recession or a lengthy period of very slow growth and that this slow growth will continue for some time. The cause of the lackluster growth is the bursting of the two bubbles of the housing market and the credit crisis. These are not problems that can respond quickly to the Fed cutting interest rates, but will need several years to correct. These deflating bubbles will put pressure on consumer spending and thus on corporate profits.
At the end of the day, it is earnings which drive the price of stocks. And if earnings are under pressure, we are going to see the stock market to continue to be under pressure. In a Slow Motion Recession, with growth depressed in the latter half of this year, it is going to be hard for the stock market to gain any real traction. As I have been writing for some time, in a recession the US stock market typically falls 30% or more. We are now down almost 20%. It would not be surprising to see the markets fall another 10%, at least from the perspective of history.
And inflation is not helping. Inflation is often more damaging to stock prices than a slow economy. Inflation, especially in a slow growth economy, eats into profits and can be hard to pass on to customers who are under spending pressure. And while inflation may slowly go away over the next year, it could be a factor for the remainder of the year.
While we should see some rallies in July and August, I think the trend is going to be lower, as the earnings projections are going to come down, and guidance is likely to be soft for many companies.
A Slow Motion Recession, a Muddle Through Economy, and inflationary pressures are not a prescription for a robust bull market. Further giving cause for concern, the recent rise in consumer spending is largely attributable to the stimulus checks being spent. This will be largely over by the middle of the next quarter. As gas and food prices eat into more and more of the average US consumer’s ability to spend money on other discretionary items, there will be pressure on almost any company that has exposure to the US consumer.”
