Here are two posts re-linked from another board. I thought they passed the sniff test because it matches up with other things I have been reading. The first is an alleged on the ground report from a doctor in Texas. The second is what local authorities do when WHO raises to level 5. Take it or leave it.
I just got this forwarded to me. No link or anything to go with it. This is in Central Texas. You can google his name. He is a medical doctor. Also, I don’t know where to put this. If it needs to be moved, thanks in advance.
Some interesting Info from a local Wimberley Doctor.
Subject: Flu Update from Dr. Gitterle
After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community
leaders and school officials in Comal County , Heather suggested I send
an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the
CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in
the media. Some of you know some or maybe all of this, but I will just
list what facts I know..
– The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset
– Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as
9 days) (this is unusual)
– Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no “herd immunity,” so
the “attack rate” is very high. This is the percentage of people who
come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to
this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatic. That
is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The “clinical
attack rate” may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show
symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of
this.
– The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico ,
and there are folks on ventilators here in the US , right now. This has
not been in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his
life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her
life. In Mexico , these folks might have died already, but here in the
US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready
access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks,
regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.
– Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70
contacts before diagnosis.
– There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not “possible” cases —
actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on
reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from
the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds,
we know that there are more than 10 cases for each “confirmed” case
right now.
– During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a
WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our
lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory.
– I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn’t, I will be
surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be canceled for
10 days.
– I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are
not as likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close
contact that are the biggest risk..
– Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will
have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely
number of infections when this is full-blown. I don’t think there is a
big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to
choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the
affected tissue than Tamiflu.
– You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or
are symptomatic. ER’s south of here are becoming overwhelmed — and I
mean that — already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting
bigger.
– It appears that this flu produces a distinctive “hoarseness” in many
victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu’s; namely, sore
throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these
symptoms, while others may have only one or two.
– N-Acetyl-Cysteine — a nutritional supplement available at the health
food store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen
the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and
600mg twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12
to take it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on
yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40
pounds, half that.
– Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite
effective in a large clinical trial in Europe , with an H1N1 variant. You
can buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy.
I will try to keep everyone posted if I have any new information.
Meanwhile, don’t be afraid just avoid infection. The fewer people
infected the easier it will be for our public officials to manage it.
Marc
My husband works for the county. The Level 5 is mostly for agencies to put their preparation into full swing. Right now, trucks are fanning out around the country to reach counties and cities who will manage and distribute ‘flu preps (about 25% of the national stockpile is going out right now). This will include “prophylactics” (probably Tamiflu-like drugs, though he doesn’t know specifically yet), masks, and other med. preps. They will take care of first-responders first, as many have said. In many places, stores will be guarded by armed reservists and guardists, so if you see armed army guys out at the fairground gates or wherever, you’ll know why.
Local health department heads will have the authority at some point to close schools and public venues. Then maybe restaurants and private establishments (as is happening in Mexico now). All those annual drills were meant to prepare them for handling material, people, and information. That is being put into action right now. Level 5 basically means that the high-level health authorities see full pandemic as immanent. Doesn’t mean an absolute guarantee, but it does mean that the threat is so high that it would be irresponsible not to prepare as if it surely is going to happen.
The law says that authorities can call for mandatory shots. These are usually set up in a central location for “drive through” administering. Now, you CAN refuse one, but if you do that, you will be required to stay in quarantine for a period of time. I don’t know how long, though it may be, say, 2 weeks or so until you show you aren’t carrying. So it’s a choice, at least, and one that I can see the sense of if things are that bad. I do not believe they will call for such shots unless we reach level 6 (though I suppose that could happen regionally — again, I just do not know WHEN it would be called for, only what the rules are when it does). Also, they will go house to house for people whose SSN doesn’t show up on the list to make sure Great Aunt Martha isn’t home alone without a way to get her shot. That doesn’t mean they’ll force you to take a shot. It’s just meant to try to help people who couldn’t do the drive through thing.
