Here are survey results. Forgive me if I misrepresent you. My initial question was vague (real versus nominal, timeframe, overall median versus specific areas), so I’ve taken some poetic license to try and place everyone on the same scale. There seems to be a pretty solid consensus on the 50% point, with some more optimistic.
Me: 30% nominal, 50% real
bsrshaw: 50%
bugs: 50%
Exsd: 50%
kev374 50%+
PerryChase: 50%
FormerSanDiegan: 34-41%
sdnatve: x less than 50%
stansd: 20%
herewego: 25%
Ambiguous:
sdrealtor
rustico (btw, tell us when you buy…)