Hello Powayseller. I have Robert Campbell’s book, but thankyou for the recommendation. It is an awesome book for the art of real estate timing. I agree that the market could fall dramatically. I wanted to get the communities reaction to my ideas, because I think you all have a more holistic view of the market than most people. Thankyou for your input thusfar.
I think generally speaking there will be a price drop nationwide. Someone bought up a good point to think about whether it would be worth the risk of earning a 7% return…even if you save with a 1031. But I suspect that there are still some places haven’t had any kind of bubble develop at all, so I don’t see the potential for a 30% drop at all those places. Maybe a small drop since the mood of real estate will be rather sour. I think for the next 2 years, people are going to flock to Texas from California. I hear about it happening already. Then, after 3 years, the nationwide recession might cause everything to slow down everywhere because the mood of real estate sucks so bad.
Especially if you have cash in hand already, then I don’t see why trust deed investing in these places would be so bad. 10% return for a place that is either going to appreciate or flatline isn’t bad to me, especially if you diversify your trust deed portfolio. Of course, like someone else said, you really have to know who you are dealing with.
To do trust deed investing in California might be quite dangerous because of the potential for a default of their payments and a market crash happening concurrently. I still think investing in a 50% LTV for 2 years or 65% for 1 year is still safe though.
The 1st rule of NAR is that we don’t talk about the NAR.
The 2nd rule of NAR is that we don’t talk about the NAR.
3rd rule of NAR is we don’t talk about the housing bubble.
