Hedge funds on average are up just 6-7% YTD, with a lot of dispersion (ie, I know guys down 10% and up 30%). I am sure the latest rally helped a bit, but not much. There will probably be some more fund implosions over the next few months as managers take on risk to try to finish the year in double digits.
I don’t know anyone in the investment community who thinks the worst is over in housing / credit — things will get ugly, but I think that’s fully priced in at this point.
All I’m saying is, let’s not take the admitedly INSANE views of some of the people we meet in the S.D. real estate market as consensus views. I am an S.D. native who grew up here but worked elsewhere until early 2005; one day shortly after moving back here, I remember silently rolling my eyes as I overheard a 20-something woman at a bagel shop in Carmel Valley say, “Yeah, maybe housing prices will level off, but people NEVER sell for less than what they paid!”
