[quote=harvey]Shadowstats is a perfect example demonstrating that one can find any data on the internet to support any economic argument – provided one does not apply any common sense when citing the numbers.
Nevertheless, there is no recession. The word recession has a specific definition involving hard data. It is not based upon subjective evaluation by economic curmudgeons.
There hasn’t been a recession for over half a decade, and there are no real indications one is developing.[/quote]
If you had read this entire thread, not to mention just that one post, you would understand that the official unemployment rates were listed there as well. I even noted it in my post. Shadowstats attempts to correct for certain deficiencies in the official numbers. Nobody is saying that it is the gold standard for statistics, it’s just another way of looking at things (for the record, I think he overstates things, but at least he tries to address some of the weaknesses in the official data). Even the experts acknowledge that “official” statistics aren’t particularly accurate, nor do these official numbers convey the full picture of what’s going on in the economy. It’s always best to look at a variety of sources and methods for gaining information in order to fill in the gaps.
I’m well aware of the official definition of a recession. But that definition is fairly meaningless to those who are out of a job, insecure in their jobs, underemployed, and/or making less today than they were 10+ years ago. Some would argue that we’ve been in an “unofficial” recession since the late 90s which has been masked (just barely) by serial credit/asset price bubbles. Some claim it’s been going on even longer than this.
We need to look at debt levels if we want to get a better picture of where we stand and what might happen in coming years, too. And this is happening while the Fed/govt are in a weaker position now, as opposed to during the financial crisis, to counter any potential problems.
