Inflation worries hit Treasuries
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which climbed 12 basis points, to 3.89%, threatens the nascent strength in mortgage refinancing activity. The root of the rate rise is inflation after China reported its consumer price index soared 7.1% year-over-year in January, the most it has risen since September, 1996. Adding to inflation worries is today’s surge to a new record high for the CRB index and a surge in industrial materials prices. The dollar’s drop is probably playing a role, but the dollar has moved mostly sideways over the past four months.
Mortgage rates had fallen far enough below the average mortgage rate paid by existing mortgage holders to spark the refinancing wave, but this has now changed. It takes an incentive of about 50 basis points to encourage refinancing activity, but the move up in yield has reduced the average refinancing incentive for holders of conventional conforming mortgages down to about 25 basis points. The rise in mortgage rates is the biggest negative in today’s developments. Rates were low for too short a time to make a real dent in the mortgage equation. With housing the economy’s biggest problem, this is why, in an odd way, it would be better for the markets to be gloomy, as it would keep mortgage rates low for longer and help to spur significant mortgage refinancings and dull the impact of mortgage resets.
