How this plays out is anybody’s guess right now, but this much I know: one should NEVER underestimate the ability of the average Russian to bear hardship, nor should one ever underestimate the West’s lack of fortitude once any situation becomes politically unpalatable.
What else do I know? Well, I know that neither Russia nor China feels the US’s place at the top of the food chain is either justified or indefinitely sustainable, and they both smell weakness.
I ask myself what is all the fuss over Crimea? If Europe had come to Ukraine’s aid when they wanted it, none of this might have happened. They’re now moaning about Russia breaking international law, and refuse to put this into any kind of context other than “the club disapproves”. I think the shifting sands are indeed relevant. How much and how soon is (as the author points out) anyone’s guess, but that middle finger to the West is getting braver. China’s territorial claims are definitely one to watch. The Yuan is probably one to watch. But against the backdrop of dwindling resources, climate change, and global indebtedness there’s enough distractions to occupy policy-makers for a few decades to come.
