Gary,
To start off the units of similiar description for rooms and baths are similiar with the exception of the number of patios. Some have two and some have one or maybe none. I didn’t research it completely. In condo complexes people sometimes give a litle value to corner units tucked away or most convenient parking stuff like that. Right now it isn’t worht worrying about stuff like that. The repairs the devloper did are cheesy. These are your basic apartments.
Your link to the tax assessor is a pretty good one. We do obviously get a better look into the details and the current activity using the MLS.
About my 40k to 90k statement. You are going to have to give my hunches a little bit of credit to accept the 90k part but I will explain. You have comps up to the middle 280’s for the 2/2 unit and you have a January 2007 comp for the same unit for 236k. I could research that and it would probably show seller paid closing costs and such . Plus you have commissions. Lets say 6k for closing and 10-12k for commissions. So net is down around 220k. So you have 65k for loss from highest to that comp for same unit. So now I go hypothetical. There have been 10-13 units listed continuously at least since January. None have sold but last I checked there was a unit in escrow I think it was the 3 bedroom. Anyway the point is next to nothing is selling there and that is no surprise. So I took the luxury of deciding that it is unlikely that another similiar unit is going to sell for more 220K gross(If it soes it will be a fluke). Subtract the possibility of closing costs and commission for that and you are getting pretty close to an 80k(not 90K)loss from the highest to the lowest. So sorry I didn’t let you know that there was a small non -data derived opinion on my part. It makes so much sense that if I had to tell a buyer what was going on there that I would feel comfortable telling the buyer not to touch it with a ten foot pole the next same unit sale or two down the road might be around 200k gross. That will be a forclosure most likely. BTW the list prices are all over the place and most much higher than the January comp. Those are very bad signs.
I am generalizing,in part, because I don’t feel comfortable bringing specific MLS data over here. I feel too much like it would be publically tossing around the story of the actual people going through this.
If you are set on living out this way and if you consider a little better area , down Jamacha road, the area is actually Rancho San Diego, there are some nice complexes. They are usually accessed from the 94 coming from downtown, not the 8, but they are on the border with El cajon. The area has real nice ammenities and an improving quantity of them. I have never seen a thug around them. I doubt there is so much distress yet, but there might be, or maybe down the road there will be.
