FSD (and others), given your understanding of GDP calculations, what would speculation in commodities do to GDP numbers? In particular, what would the recent run-up in oil prices (part speculative / part other factors) do to overall GDP calculations? It would show up as growth, correct? Not ‘real’ growth in terms of increased industrial output, but growth as measured by dollar value transactions, correct? Are components such as oil and related industries corrected for price fluctuations?
Also, I believe it is typical for defense spending to increase just prior to national elections, restocking of supplies and awarding of contracts. I seem to remember from back in the Wall Street days these are somewhat timed to produce a bump for the quarter, with the result generally being about a percentage point GDP for the quarter impacted.
