Former,
Do I under stand you correctly? You are saying SFR’s are overpriced by 45%-50% but will only go down 12% and that non-crash will be done in a few years?
Maybe this is worth noting.Since we are all guessing about the future anyway.
Using just your median trace on the graph you provided. I noticed that the 89′ bubble approximately got off the trend by 50%-100%. This bubble got off the median trend by 200% or more.For the first it looks like the correction was about %20 nominal when it bottomed…So it seems this bottom could easily be 45-50% nominal at what ever point in time it hits a trough, or 300k whereas your graph takes us to approximately 400k-450k depending on the 4%or 6% line. Are you not anticipating it swing past?
I’m not trying to be smart just get smart. NTIIWA but I have been pretty good at speculation regarding peaks and troughs even when I was completely lacking in the more formal education I am getting here. I think that collectively we will nail the next bottom if we stay on the blog, Ah!That’s stupid we will never agree on anything.