[quote=flu] Not my problem because I will be out of the markets at least enough so that any additional loss on that latter half of a crash (IF it happens) stillwont offset all my gain that I’ve already cashed in up to this point.
And as I mentioned before, there’s a natural pecking order on the economic ladder. So if something does happen, I won’t be at the bottom of that ladder, so relatively speaking, I’ll still be ok. lol… It’s like a class with the average grade being 50% but you get a 65%, so with a class curve, you still are doing pretty well.
I don’t try predict what and when things will happen. I figure it would be analysis to to paralysis and eventually cost me a fortune since I would discourage myself from doing anything. Kinda of like not buying a house after home prices were already down significantly. Doomsayers always end up losing.
It’s like a someone that believes in the bible that is so convinced that that rapture is going to happen in his/her lifetime, that he/she ends up suspending life to the point of not living it, only to find in the very end it didn’t happen in his/her lifetime. If rapture does happen, hopefully you are in good character so that there’s nothing to prepare for.[/quote]
market timing in theory is a brilliant concept, in practice it just doesn’t work for 99.99% of investors
agree about “relative” economic standing
my analogy is a variation about the joke about two hikers being chased by a bear in the woods,… to survive ya need to out run the other guy AND watch where you are going because you don’t want to recklessly run off a cliff or into a tree, in the process of escaping the oncoming bear market’s wrath
a timing system is difficult execute because it requires correctly recognizing indicators of an impending economic phuck up AND correctly executing an “exit strategy” into an investment vehicle that retains relative value
[quote=minyanville.com] Market Timing Doesn’t Work
Numerous surveys and studies have shown that the percent of successful long-term market timers is right around 0%. Granted, there may be a handful of truly gifted individuals or organizations that can repeatedly and consistently pick highs and lows with astounding accuracy with all of their funds. But they are so few and far between as to render the strategy as unworkable for just about everyone else.
There is also another aspect of market timing that should be considered: What if you miss some of the big up days? What is the effect on your performance?
back to the matter @ hand, consider that the OP asked for opinions about investing in muni bonds as an alternative to ~1%CDs
perhaps the individual asking the question, has a majority of savings in an investment that grows @~1% annualized (which as time goes forward this does not seem to build up a nest egg sufficient for retirement) and the reason for sticking w/ ~1%CDs is because of “analysis paralysis” as you stated
NOW ponder scaling the problem,… where the managers of various portfolios of insurance and pension funds are similarly affected by “analysis paralysis” AND the masses are banking on these “professions” to generate returns necessary for a comfortable retirement,… bottom line, its difficult/impossible in a global environment of very low or negative interest rates!!!!
looking @ the bigger picture (and factoring in boundary conditions, etc.) essentially it seems there is too little productive work for everyone to do (given factors like advances in technology which increases productivity) AND in order for “retirement” to work for the masses there needs to be an economy to create/support ever growing fiat currency values assigned to “investment vehicles” (i.e. bonds, equities, mutual funds, FOREX, Gold, RE, etc.)
rock, meets hard place (majority of people caught in between)
just sayin seems a majority of people are “redundant” (as they say in the UK), therefore its a problem of biblical proportions given people’s hopes and expectations
