[quote=flu][quote=Jazzman]^^^I think you’ve given very good reasons for why things could go pear-shaped, but your conclusion seems more influenced by lost hope.[/quote]
And I think you will be wrong (again). But we’ll see. I’m not doubting there will be a correction, but you folks thinking of a massive correction I think will be disappointed (again), in as much some of you were trying to second guess the RE correction here in San Diego and thinking that the best coastal parts of SD would fall 30-40% during the RE meltdown, despite prices had already gone down 20-25% in those parts of town. Wrong there too. I find it funny you guys are so convinced of a doomsday scenario, it’s almost comical. Do you really think there won’t be some intervention if things start to do south (again)?
‘Lost hope?’ I don’t personally care either way, because personally my cost basis there is so low and I don’t care since I don’t plan on selling, ever.[/quote]
It is more rational to judge the size of a possible correction by the size of the bubble that precedes it. When prices are very high compared to historical norms it is reasonable to assume a commensurate correction. Don’t be fooled into to thinking that the previous correction was somehow to do with fundamentals of value. There were so many factors that prevented a bigger correction. It was the explicitly stated aim of the government to prevent house price falls at any cost. The reasons were considered justified at the time, but the consequences not fully realized.
Unlike you, I do care. Not about SF per se but about the consequences that follow and the perpetual resumption of conditions that seem determined to repeat themselves.
