[quote=flu]FWIW: I really haven’t been checking out Carmel Valley stats recently, simply because prices 2 years ago reached a point above which I personally could feel comfortable affording, so I stopped looking and keeping in touch (the same philosophy why i don’t go to auto-shows. Why bother looking at things that you cannot obtain)….
Anyway, this thread made me interested on looking at what’s going on again in this area…. I found this stat interesting posted by Redfin.
Past 90 days
Median List Price: $1.25M
Median List $/Sqft: $428
Median Sale Price: $950k
Median Sale $/Sqft: $406k
Median Sale/List: 98%
Average # of Offers: 2.4
Average Down Payment: 32.1%
Number of Homes Sold: 187
I don’t think people are struggling or necessarily stretching that much.[/quote]
Acc to Redfin’s Carmel Valley stats:
The median sold price is $950K
The average downpayment is 32.1%.
.321 x $950K = $304,950 downpayment.
$950K – $304,950 = $645,050 mortgage amt.
$562,350 is the current conforming limit in SD County (up from $546,250 last year). A $645,050 mortgage would have jumbo loan rates, which are higher and harder to get than a conforming loan. Homebuyers don’t take out expensive jumbo loans unless they are unable to put enough down to avoid it.
I honestly don’t see where the typical tract homebuyer in CV is (or was) dripping with cash. And it is obvious that the average homebuyer there is NOT part of the “8 figure” group because if they were, they wouldn’t be bothering with a ~70% purchase money mortgage …. or any mortgage at all, for that matter.
And flu, your $4.5M and up listings were outliers.
Even Alta Del Mar’s brochure showed artist’s renderings of “estate homes” and the developer offered to “build to suit.” They also offered available 1/2 AC and up lots for $1-2M. Those aren’t typical tract homes on typical CV lots nor are they even remotely typical of the vast majority of homes built in CV subdivisions.
The current 30-year fixed jumbo rate in SD County is 4.13 with 0 pts (requires a 740 FICO score) with a monthly P&I payment of $3,124. When you add in taxes, insurance, MR and HOA dues totaling $1102 mo, the monthly PITI + HOA comes to $4226 mo!
That is a LOT of money every month for a $950K econobox situated on a 4500 – 5500 sf lot. And this is assuming that SFRs can still be purchased in CV today for $950K (1900 – 2200 sf?).
For comparison purposes to a $950K median sold price, the asking price on the OP’s link is $1,375K for a 2691 sf house situated on a ~6400 sf lot:
[quote=flu]…At $1.375, might be tougher to sell, but I think it would move easily around 1.2-1.25 maybe higher…[/quote]
Today’s homebuyer can do so much better than this outside of Carmel Valley …. Yes, even in some of SD County’s best areas!
