[quote=flu]Anyway, for the rest of the folks… Any takers on Romney versus Obama.
I was saying Obama is going to win for the past few months with the precondition that the economy holds up they that is was…Well guess what? My prediction now is that if the stock market continues to tank the way it is up to the election, he ain’t going to make a second term.[/quote]
I feel that the unemployment rate matters a heckuva lot more to your typical voter than the stock market. Most of the folks like flu who watch the market closely aren’t going to vote for Obama anyways. I’ll grant if the Dow tanks another 10-20% by election day it’s not good for Obama, but that’s more of a symptom of overall economic weakness than a cause.
Romney’s two huge problems are the main problems the National Republican Party faces: Women and Latino voters. Both were actively alienated in the primary process. I’m not convinced Romney can carry more than 45% of either of these two large blocs, and that makes the electoral math pretty challenging for Romney. There are only so many white males making over $200K a year in swing states, which is one of the few groups Romney totally dominates.
Obviously it’s far from over, but at this moment in time Obama has the inside track. Still, if someone gave me 3:2 odds on Romney, I’d probably take that bet. But since it’s baseball season I’ll use this analogy: It’s the end of the 2nd inning, and the score is Obama 2, Romney 1, with a lot of game left to play.
