[quote=Eugene]On the other hand, are there any prospects of any significant inventory (aside from some possible supply @ VP) coming on the market in the next few years?
Are there any condo projects under construction right now? (I don’t follow the downtown, but I wouldn’t expect any.) Is anyone even going to break ground in 2011?
Downtown condos move at a rate of about 50 per month. 700 condos at VP would make a splash if they were all to land in the multiple listing system simultaneously, but they would be absorbed.
Looking at a wider picture, there are also some condos in North Park, and some more condos in Hillcrest, and lots of condos in Mission Valley, and VP would compete with them too to some extent.[/quote]
I already addressed these issues above. Vantage Point units are not for sale. Zell’s company bought the whole project as apartments a few months back.
The last few large projects to get completed downtown were Vantage Point, Smart Corner, Aperture, the Legend, and Bayside (might be a couple of others I’m missing here). These projects broke ground in ’07 or thereabouts (if memory serves). Nothing of size broke ground once ’08 began (as the lenders put a halt to things about three years too late), so it’s been over three years since a major project got underway. I doubt we’ll see anything break ground for another 5 years but we may see some proposals start to pop up in 3-4 years.
It’s a bit difficult to find out exactly how many new and existing units are available downtown but I’m pretty sure I can find someone who has that data, and I’ll report back once I have it. Having said that, my gut, which is not to be trusted, tells me it will be 2-3 years before we’re at anything resembling a “normal” level of inventory downtown simply because no new inventory will be coming on over the period.
