[quote=esmith]How about we stop panicking and try to do some level-headed analysis.
– What’s the median house price in San Diego county?
– Knowing that you can get a 5% 30-year fixed mortgage, what would be your total monthly payment if you bought a median house today? Let’s say 20% down. Include property tax and downpayment opportunity loss. You can use this source to check historical mortgage rates and CD rates:
– What if we use inflation-adjusted dollars?[/quote]
I don’t know if we are at the bottom in pricing, but I have to agree with esmith on the point that housing is near generational lows in San Diego in terms of affordability, since it is obvious that houses are more affrdable than they have been in my adult lifetime (I’m in my mid-40’s).
My single-point Clairemont anecdote is illustrative, but there is further evidence.
The article was written in September, with data from a couple months prior to that (Case-Shiller). At that time mortgage rates were around 6% and prices have dropped another 5 to 10%.
If you factor in rates dropping to ~ 5% and the further price decline, today we are at or near an all time low on that chart, which goes back to the late 1970’s.
So esmith is right, things are cheap by historical standards. They may get significantly cheaper, but we are definitely seeing historically low housing costs when measured by affordability metrics.
