Enough with the 50% drop callers. Look at esmith’s January HPI which anecdotally makes sense with what I see along the coast regarding values.
His graph shows prices are about 70 to 80% above pre-bubble pricing in most parts of the county. A drop of 50% would put prices well below pre-bubble prices on a nominal basis. Factor in wage increases (which JWM and ex-SD do so often) of easily 20 to 30% in the nicer areas among professionals and a 25% decline from here looks like alot to expect.
Throw in lower interest rates and affordability is only about 30% above the pre-bubble prices adjusted for interest rates. Factor in the rise in wages and we are already pretty close. Sorry folks but I just dont see much more than 20% downside from here.
Sure you may get more than that in Da’ Hood but do you really want to live in Da’ Hood?
If you really want a nice home, get your ass off the computer, work harder, start a business and make more money. Dont expect life to hand it to you on a silver platter.
