Effects of the Key Provisions of H.R. 3200
The legislation would establish a mandate to have health insurance, expand eligibility for Medicaid, and establish new health insurance exchanges through which some people could purchase subsidized coverage. The options available in
the insurance exchange would include private health insurance plans as well as a public plan that would be administered by the Secretary of Health and Human Services. The specifications would also require payments of penalties by uninsured individuals, firms that did not provide qualified health insurance, and other firms
whose employees would receive subsidized coverage through the exchanges. The plan would also provide tax credits to small employers that contribute toward the cost of health insurance for their workers. Collectively, those provisions would yield a significant increase in the number of
Americans with health insurance. By 2019, CBO and the staff of JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about 37 million, leaving about 17 million nonelderly residents uninsured (nearly half of whom would be unauthorized immigrants). In total, CBO estimates that enacting those provisions would raise deficits by $1,042 billion over the 2010-2019 period.
By the end of the 10-year period, in 2019, the coverage provisions would add
$202 billion to the federal deficit, CBO and JCT estimate. That increase would be
partially offset by net cost savings of $50 billion and additional revenues of
$86 billion, resulting in a net increase in the deficit of an estimated $65 billion.
It is important to note that the figures presented here do not represent a complete
cost estimate for the coverage provisions of the legislation. They reflect
specifications provided by the committee staff rather than detailed analysis of the
legislative language. They do not include certain costs that the government would
incur to administer the proposed changes and the impact of the bill’s provisions on
other federal programs. Nevertheless, the estimates reflect the major net budgetary
effects of H.R. 3200.