[quote=DWCAP][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Some people will die next year and their heirs will sell their property. Those should be counted in shadow inventory as well.
Also, some people will move away, retire to the mountains or other scenarios. The future inventory from these sources should be investigated as well.[/quote]
Why? That is normal inventory flux. There will always be people dying and people moving.
Shadow inventory refers to the ABNORMAL current situation where property ‘owners’ are not fufilling their contractual obligations, and the banks are not acting upon it and taking the house to foreclosure and/or sale.
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I apologize to those who took my suggestions literally. As tg suggests, there has been a gradual shift in the definition of shadow inventory. It was originally something that could be precisely measured. But once those numbers rolled out, we gradually expanded the definition to a point where we include items that are less easily measured.
I was simply taking this to its logical extreme to make a point.
For example, take analyst’s category #4
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress .
These are a long way from being on the market. Maybe a couple years at the current pace. To understand the impact, you’d have to know what fraction of these on average would have come to market as organic sales over the next couple years due to the normal reasons (deaths, divorces, job changes, etc).
