(Disclaimer, I’m not a professional economist, or an expert on the latest regional stats, but I’ll take a chance and throw some observations out there to start:)
Regional Strengths:
+ Military presence to increase? Defense contracting to remain high, big business here in SD, SAIC, GenAtm, etc..
+ Healthcare likely to see continued growth? Demographics, Fed/State revenue streams, insurance money, etc. BioTech venture cap?
+ Strong higher education institutions. Universities are regional economic growth engines, education, research, spin-offs, etc. (eg. Qualcomm effect)
Regional Weaknesses:
– Construction, real estate and mortgage finance getting hammered. Job statistics understate impact due to P/T, self-employed, etc.
– Tourism taking a hit? Business travel, conventions, households tightening their belts, price of gas from Arizona, airfare, etc.
– High-tech to slump because it’s a ‘leading’ industry, businesses spend on IT when they’re doing well, avoid IT during recessionary environments. Thoughts?
– Will city be able to avoid bankruptcy? Liabilities are insane and tax revenues are going down. Municipal and related industries to take a hit?
– Trade with Mexico, tourism, etc. dropping due to border issues? Reading about the impacts on Tijuana recently. Feedback here?
How does this economic cycle play out in the San Diego region?
