[quote=davelj][quote=davelj]
I said many moons ago (I’ll try to find the thread) that we’d likely get back 80%-110% of the bank-related TARP. I think I can tighten that band to 90%-110%.
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While we’re not out of the woods by any stretch and I expect continued ugliness and perhaps even a mini-crisis… I think the hysteria over bank-related TARP by certain Piggs in this thread was misplaced. But, again, we’re still only in the middle innings of this thing.[/quote]
An update:
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KBW TARP Tracker – 76th Edition: “Oh So Close”
Summary–
We update our TARP Tracker to review the cost and returns to the Treasury to date from the TARP program. Specifically we review the TARP CPP program, the primary program supporting banks.
Key Points–
* The Treasury Is Very Close To Breaking Even on the TARP CPP as it invested $204.9B in 707 banking institutions, and earned back $204.1B to date. In total, Treasury received repayments totaling over $179B, earned income of $25B from dividends, interest, and warrant dispositions, and posted losses of $2.6B. The Treasury currently has about $23B remaining in outstanding CPP capital investments in 559 banking institutions.
* For the 101 banks that fully repaid CPP (inclusive of warrant disposition), Treasury’s average return on investment (ROI) is 9.3%, with seven investments yielding ROIs >=20%: First ULB Corp. (29%), Centra Financial Holdings (28%), FPBF (26%), AXP (23%), LNC (23%), FMWC (21%), and GS (20%). SBIB’s $125M CPP TARP investment has the lowest ROI of 2.9%.
* The Treasury posted a $2.6B loss on CPP investments in CIT, Pacific Coast National Bancorp, The South Financial Group and TIB Financial Corp.
* In aggregate, through February, the Treasury collected $10.6B in CPP dividends and interest, and tallied $204.3M in missed dividend and interest payments.
* A total of 163 institutions contributed to this $204.3M in non-current TARP dividend/interest payments.
* For the entire TARP program, Treasury invested $410.9B and has received $305.7B in repayments and income (inclusive of dividends, interest, warrant income, and other income). Treasury currently still has $142.5B in TARP investments outstanding.
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So, with the passage of time I think I can say with a high degree of confidence that We the People are going to get back at least 105% of our principal on the TARP’s CPP (that is, the “bank-related TARP”), comfortably inside my initial prediction of 80%-110% of principal, or roughly break-even (perhaps a small loss) in real terms. I suspect that the entire TARP program will result in a loss of about 10% of principal… but that could be too high. We’ll know in about 18 months.
While TARP was, admittedly, just a part of the overall “assistance” given to financial institutions… this thread was about TARP, so I’m sticking to the topic at hand. TARP may be a horrible program in all sorts of ways (particularly with respect to moral hazard), but… the CPP money will get paid back, which few of you believed would happen. Not to worry, I don’t expect anyone to post acknowledging they were wrong about this.
