I do agree with most of what everyone says about the big picture issues, or I would not be here. If everyone goes back in the archives you will all see that I repeatedly called for a nasty decline beginning about August 1st. I probably said that in here 10 or more times. I was off by one week, however, that was just a prediction 6 months ahead of time. When it came down to it, and it is still the case today, my longer term large swing method still says to be long, so I am staying long.
I do wish I had gone with my gut and exited a few weeks ago when I had a huge profit ( but I do not trade with emotions ), but if I had, I would definitely be buying back now, and most of my stocks are still above where I bought them. There is no question we are in a panic sell off at this point, yet the commercials have now gone to the largest long position they have had all year, and bonds are rallying. This is a texbook buy signal, albeit not a day trade type of setup. These types of buys can take awhile to work because they are fundamentally and not technically based. As a result, I think a sharp bounce will happen very soon, and that is where I am likely to exit.
If we just freefall, then I guess I am stuck riding it down. I am short the futures in the S&P right now in my short term trading, and up a bundle on that trade ( I shorted the open today ). Very interesting times we live in, and congrats to all who shorted the high, you have out done me on this decline by a ton. My models have served me too well to desert them now just because it did not catch the exact high, it is not designed to.
The sell signals usually get generated on a bounce after an initial drop like this, so I think that is what will happen. In the meantime, it is still a T-bill margined trade that has a 4.89% gain in interest and about 5% in stock profits, plus about 1% in dividends so almost 11% still, so not a total disaster yet.
If we do not get the bounce, I will completely admit that I was totally wrong as I always do when I am. As a trader there is no hiding, the proof is in the results not the talk. I know what crow tastes like!
