Could there be a rally? Sure. I am not going to jump in feet first, however, as the threat of a recession creates significant doubt in my mind. If we move into a recession, I think it is going to last far longer than two quarters and may even flirt with depression numbers. I am long medical, water, and alternative energy stocks. I am short or have puts on homebuilders and lenders. I also have a few puts on Best Buy. I do not think they can keep up with their earnings. Fewer people are going to be pulling money out of their houses to buy plasma TVs. I think Christmas sales numbers are going be way down from last year. I have some calls on eBay as I think they might do very well in a recession as people are going to be looking for bargains. They made some changes in the Spring that were a bad move (I sold my position at that time) but seem to correcting their mistake.
PS, I don’t think you need anyone to help you out unless you plan on really making big trades. I think you are going to have to look for a LONG time before you find someone who knows enough to pass your test. You are smart and you have the data. Trust yourself and go for it. Apply for options trading. It took almost two months for my brokerage firm to approve me, which irritated me a great deal.
