Chris, I share your poor perception of economists. As Dean Baker, economist at CEPR said, in the fall of 2000, none of the Blue Chip 50 economic forecasters predicted the recession, which was only a few months away at that time!!!! Even though the stock market had fallen significantly…. I also have a poor perception of most mutual fund managers; they are con artists, spending too much money selling snake oil. In the end, they don’t beat even the S&P500.
You’ve got to know how to weed out the bad from the good. I made a post recently about good economists. While Thornberg has some interesting and astute comments, his forecasts are lousy.
I respect Dr. Nouriel Roubini and Dean Baker. A good economist can be judged by how well he thinks independently, digs into the numbers rather than falling for the government headline, and how contrarian he is. Mostly, what’s his track record?
There is a dire need for a good economist in San Diego. SANDAG is a government cheerleader, and Alan Gin will go down in history as having missed the biggest bubble in our history. We really need a decent forecaster. This is the challenge I am considering. For the national and international scene, we’ve got Dr. Roubini.