Sounds like Lebanon to me… Circa 80’s. In fact AQ and Hezbollah will probably be fighting each other within 15 seconds of victory. Even if Hezbollah did make their bed with Assad you don’t think they won’t be courting however is in power?
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Hezbollah have their hands full in Lebanon. I doubt they’ll be directly involved. Iran may attempt to find another proxy in Syria, but as unpopular as Assad is, it’s not likely they’ll find one that maintain any significant support. When Assad falls, and eventually he will, for a whole lot of reasons, it will make the Egyptian transition look smooth.