Carlisle,
I think the response to all of the above is, “It won’t be different this time.” Have you read Rich’s bubble primer? If so, you know that one of the key components is the runaway job growth in real estate related industries. This may be a chicken or the egg type of thing, but those jobs will not only be lost in a down market, but flat as well. We are in that flat market. The jobs are already being lost. When the built up house ATM reserves runs its course, the game will be lost.
Also, it’s not as simple as saying, “Hey! It’s either different or not!” It CAN be different in some respects but not in others. However, if that is the case, you have to ask why. As state above, I don’t believe it will be different for any of the questions. But if we are to see a decline without employment problems, what would be the cause? Unprecedented lending standards? Unusual rates of investor activity?
If things are to be different for questions 1 or 3, what would be the cause? I can think of no reason.
