cabinboy, I wouldn’t rely on economists to predict a recession. Not a single one predicted the 2000-2001 recession, in a poll conducted in Sept, 2000. This was after the stock market crash. The main economist predicting a recession are Nouriel Roubini, Dean Baker, and Ed Leamer. Leamer has a chart showing each time housing starts fell yoy, we went into a recession (exceptions: big war spending in Korea and Vietnam).
I am 95% cash. The stock market is the worst place to be now, but thanks to suckers buying into the Fed-is-done rally, and the misled investors who buy into the “buy and hold” and “dollar cost average” theories, contrarians like me, and technical pros like Chris, make money. It’s a zero sum game; we need the herd to move in the opposite direction to make money.