[quote=CA renter] . . . It’s a bit silly to think that there should be no more housing growth just because you want the value of your house to go up. For as long as more and more people want to live here, we will need more housing. We are nowhere near the point where we are “running out of land.” A mere 15-30 minute drive will prove that we are not out of land. And if they close some military bases, as they’ve done in the past, we could have a LOT of extra land for development.
Not saying this is what I want, either, but we have to be honest about the facts. We have not run out of land, and nobody is obligated to inconvenience millions of other people just because some people want the value of their houses to keep going up.[/quote]
CAR, where is there land available for current subdivision development in SD County? Are you SURE any of this land you’ve been eyeing in your “15-30 min drives” is zoned residential and not agricultural or industrial and is fit for breaking ground for subdivisions (isn’t polluted or on a flood plain, etc)?
Why would the military shut down a viable base in a port city (such as SD)? Do you recall any major military facilities being shut down in port cities (besides boot [training] camps which can operate anywhere)? The only base I see that could ostensibly be shut down in SD County is the MCRD (possibly relocated to Camp Pendleton). Instead, the Navy has spent many millions on it in recent years improving its facilities. The Navy needs all that extra land (some coastal) in Camp Pendleton for its important training exercises. It has also spent many millions in recent years on CP upgrading its enlisted housing, its hospital and exchange/commissary facilities, among many other improvements.
My opinion has nothing to do with the perceived (present or future) value of my house. It is big enough for very comfortably house a family of six but I realize that the vast majority of prospective homebuyers today who are in “child-rearing mode” prefer a newer neighborhood than mine so my buyer pool would be limited to those who will accept a closer-in older neighborhood.
Silicon Valley (San Mateo County and most of Santa Clara County) is only 1/3 developed, yet it has been completely built out for at least 3 decades. The same is true of Marin County, CA and Boulder County, CO. Contra Costa County is only 2/3 to 3/4 developed and Mendocino County is only 1/4 to 1/5 developed. Both have no available subdivision land. What are the reasons for this? Plain and simple, these counties are heavily comprised of parkland (National, state and municipal) which will never be used for development of any kind. Unlike SD County’s (and other SoCal counties’) greedy, shortsighted elected officials, the above counties’ forebears (very wisely) issued building moratoriums early on to preserve their beautiful open space for everyone to enjoy into eternity. CA coastal counties (or any well-located US County with an abundance of natural resources and beauty) doesn’t owe it “newcomers” a damn thing. SD County didn’t owe me an abundance of new housing to choose from when I arrived ~40 years ago and it doesn’t owe newcomers (or me) anything today.
I’ve never been against “newcomers” relocating to CA coastal counties but I am dead set against creating more sprawl in those counties to “provide” this group with an abundance of new” housing to live in. They can move to a (circa 1922) apt unit on Banker’s Hill, like I did when I arrived here in the 1970’s. Although heavily remodeled and in much better shape today than when I rented there, all of those buildings are still there, folks! Or, if they will work up north, there are plenty of existing rental units and homes to buy (both older and newer) to choose from.
If a newcomer is considering relocating to SD County from a newish home situated on an expansive lot in TX, for example, and is having major issues with finding a “suitable” place to live for themselves in SD County so is on the fence about taking the SD job offer, they don’t need to relocate because they will only be disappointed and will likely pack up and leave the job months after accepting it (especially a family with kids with only one wage-earner). This has always been the case and no one can fix it.
SD County has no less than 21 colleges cranking out graduates of every level twice yearly and the rest of SoCal (with hundreds of thousands of college graduates of every major within its population) is just up the road 1-2 hours. SD County firms do not need to headhunt nationwide. They can easily hire qualified SD natives and other qualified longtime CA residents who have strong local family ties and/or already own their own homes.
SV has never provided an abundance of new homes for their out-of-area new hires, yet its high tech industry is flourishing and will continue to do so. I honestly don’t even see a RE “bubble” forming up there.
Successful long-term living in CA coastal counties has ALWAYS been based upon the doctrine of “survival of the fittest.” Less important than actual income level, those who have been able to consistently hold down FT employment, manage their money wisely, buy RE as young as possible and at a fair price and live well within their means over decades have been and will be able to remain in coastal CA indefinitely. Those who are less disciplined and want instant gratification (or want the same “lifestyle” as they had in their flatland “flyover country” former home) will be sorely disillusioned early on after relocation and will likely go broke very fast. Nothing has changed, people. It’s ALWAYS been this way.
