“but there are so many variables at play…and i know so little about them…i jsut hear X from one person, Y rom another, and Z from the enxt person. and X, Y, and Z are all educatd sources”
It takes someone, call him W, who is more knowlegeable than X, Y, & Z to know whether X, Y, or Z is right. Or, if they are all wrong.
To you, X, Y, & Z may seem very knowlegeable. To W, it’s possible that they all know very little.