[quote=briansd1]
Arraya is exagerating for effect. [/quote]
I admit, I can see things early – but maybe by 5-10 years not 80-90. For example, I thought the next leg down was going to start a year ago. It looks like I was a little off.
[quote=briansd1]
Arraya might be right long term. The significant shifts won’t happen but slowly in like 100 years. [/quote]
That is straight up reality impairment.
[quote=briansd1]
Even in the unlikely event America and the Western World become stagnant like Japan, economic output is not collapsing, just growing slowly. China and emerging countries simply need to fill in the gap to keep world GDP growing at say 5%. [/quote]
It always amazes me that people will take past economics trends(in this case of a completely different country with completely different economy) and extrapolate them forward. The Japan analogy is completely irrelevant and highly unlikely. The answer simply is the world is a completely different place with completely new macro-forces. There is zero reason to think we we will be like Japan of the past 2 decades – Heck, Japan won’t be like Japan of the past 2 decades.
So your making the case that China can make it with customers drying up in the West? Maybe, maybe not. The first credit collapse certainly sent shock waves to China. But, I admit, they may be able to muddle along while we are enveloped in depression and unrest.
[quote=briansd1]In the West, it’s mostly a question of demographics which America can solve easily by reforming entitlements and increasing immigration. [/quote]
Right. It’s simple. Bring in immigrants with chronic high unemployment, and little to no job growth. Not enough to make up for population increases, btw Brilliant. Yes making a thriving economy is easy, just add people and print money!
[quote=briansd1]
The shifts are more psychological. In the business world, everything is about growth and marginal boosts in sales. Companies concentrate on products, markets, and strategies that drive incremental growth. [/quote]
Here goes Brian again telling the american people their aggregate lower standard of living and rising underclass is in their head.
[quote=briansd1]
Overall, it might work out all the better for us. We’ll save more; and we’ll feel the influence of the rest of the world more, rather than the other way around where we influence the world. We may end up with more choices, more products, more designs for around the world. More diversity might be culturally enriching. [/quote]
Just replace us and we with me and I. This is the way Brian thinks. There must be something wrong with the rising tide of anger and frustration because I have more consumer choices and I pay less of TVs. Why it must be that fox news!
