Breezhnev: Again, you play fast and loose with the facts. I am not for the bailouts. I’ve argued that sometimes a bad decision (bailouts) is better than the worst decision (systemic collapse).
For a guy that lashes out with nasty epithets (like “welfare queen”) when challenged, you’re pretty quick to cry foul and act aggrieved. If you’re not prepared to take lumps, don’t dish ’em out.
In terms of the various “experts” parading around the blogosphere: Every year, before the NFL season begins, there are dozens of publications, ranging from “Sporting News” to “Sports Illustrated” and the major outlets like NYTimes and WashPost, that all call the winner of the upcoming SuperBowl. Universally, they’re nearly all wrong (how many picked Arizona to go the distance?).
Same applies to financial writing. While Shedlock is an engaging read, he’s not an authority. He’s a financial planner who happens to blog about economics. He isn’t someone with a strong academic background, nor is he an extensively published author in the field of economics (or finance or even general business).
Similarly, I enjoy Jim Jubak and Bill Fleckenstein, and while they both enjoy a deserved reputation for their solid grasp of the fundamentals, both are, by their own admission, wrong as often as right.
If you want a particularly instructive example: Look at what happened to Peter Schiff’s portfolio over the last two and a half years. Schiff enjoys tremendous esteem and deservedly so. Like Nouriel Roubini, he has been remarkably prescient regarding world economic events. Yet his portfolio has gotten hammered. Why? For all his prescience, events have occurred that he hasn’t gotten right and his investments have suffered accordingly.
The dynamics of the market are beyond any one player and that includes Warren Buffett. One of the most successful investors in American history had his ass handed to him last year and, in his annual shareholder’s letter, he explained the mistakes he made and how he misread the larger forces at play in the market.
My issues with you, Breezie, are twofold: You aren’t open enough to listen to a viewpoint that differs from your own, and you believe that throwing a lot of unconnected, seemingly intelligent writing at us constitutes some sort of knowledge. It doesn’t. Learn to separate knowledge from information and fact from fiction. Learn from your mistakes and don’t believe everything you read. Most of it is bullshit anyway.
