[quote=bearishgurl]Ren, I understand what you’re saying here. I’m not even particularly “bullish.” But the property you are planning to buy in South Carlsbad in the future will be on tract, no? I don’t believe the way you’re describing it here is the way appraisals are done in the real world. First of all, there could be geographical barriers to using a sold comp from =>6 blocks away (ie freeways, canyons, zip codes, etc). I don’t see sold comps from a different tract used for appraisal purposes to value a property on a certain tract unless there are no recent comparable sales on the SUBJECT’s tract for them to use for a comparable sale.[/quote]
I am talking about tract homes, although I’m not sure whether we will end up in one of those or a custom. There are far more tract homes than there are customs, even in many affluent areas.
I know you’re aware that more than one comp is used in an appraisal. 3-6 is typical I believe, and frequently some will fall outside the tract.
[quote]The buyers who buy the customs in coveted areas and the buyers who buy in a tract even just 6 blocks away are two completely different animals.[/quote]
I didn’t say a tract home sale influences a custom six blocks away. I agree they are completely different and probably have very little to do with each other, but I don’t know enough about that subject to comment. My point is that comps can and do influence each other across city and zip boundaries, and that that influence travels in baby steps. Barring some drastic geographical barrier as you mentioned, the sale of a tract home in one zip code does affect the price of a very similar home one street over in a different zip code. Ask an appraiser. I am aware there will be a premium for the better zip code/school district even if they’re the same builder/floor plan.
[quote=sdrealtor]Ren
To echo BG’s thoughts it doesnt work that way in tracts either. Comps from the neighborhood. In early 2009, homes in oceanside were selling for under $200K but that had no impact on where I live in South Carlsbad. Most of the people looking here are looking in similar markets like Carmel Valley, Encinitas etc. This all goes back to the butterfly theory that old time poster Bugs championed. It just hasnt worked that way at least no where near a 1:1 or even 1:3 ratio.
Around here the choice isnt I’ll just go somewhere less desireable if prices are lower there, the choice is I’ll just rent here instead of buying. It changes things a lot from what your theory would predict.[/quote]
I’m not actually talking about the buyer at all. I’m one that would pay more to live one street over in the better district, but my decision isn’t the only thing that influences the price of my new home – the comp one street over does, too.
Areas that are miles apart may not seem interconnected because of the huge price and buyer difference, but they are, even if prices are going different directions in the two areas, and even if the connection is so slight that it goes unnoticed (and would certainly be difficult, if not impossible, to show on paper, which is why this isn’t a debate that can be “won” by either side).
I’m not saying the influence is huge or even that significant. Only that it exists. I’m a “never say never” kind of guy.
