[quote=bearishgurl]livincali, I don’t see a proliferation of “dated properties” (SFRs) flooding the market at any one time, ever. I believe those owners of “dated properties” who succumb to reverse-mortgage lenders are far and few between in SD. The majority of senior citizen-homeowners in SD County have more pension/SS monthly income than they can even use, due to many thousands of them collecting pensions and survivor benefits from the VA and CSRS/FERS/SDCERS/SDCERA + SS. Tricare for Life charges military retirees and survivors very little in monthly premium (and no copays except for a small copay for brand name drugs) for their Medicare Part B and D coverage. SD at one time was a city/county populated by predominately government workers and military and a good portion of those senior-homeowners (now retired) are still alive and not going anywhere …. nor will they ever need to take out a reverse mortgage, IMO. . . [/quote]
Okay, well I’ve got my SD Co plat maps now and will endeavor to work on them on Sunday. But I’m going to have to retract my statement above as it applies to some NorCal zip codes. I just spent an hour+ perusing single family home listings in Saratoga, CA (Santa Clara Co) which I have not done in about 3 yrs. My search criteria was simply a SFR, 3/2/2, one story with a fireplace. 95070 has always been one of my fav zip codes :=))
There are quite a few listings currently on the market in 95070/71. Over half of the listings I looked at were assessed at $75K to $95K but nearly ALL OF THESE were asking $1.2M to $2.8M. Average lot size was about one-third AC and there were several lots much larger. House SF was about 1600 to 2800 (avg about 2250 sf). Year built was 1955 to 1970. None of the listings had any (legal) additions which added to the footprint (or the assessment) of the property. I didn’t take any notes, but based upon my memory, market time was 1-68 days with about 1/4 “pending” and maybe four which appeared to be relists (BOMKs) with 2-3 of those with slight price reductions.
Okay, now for the general condition of these listings:
–Very few had lots which had been watered regularly. Lots of brown and patchy lawns and dry landscaping and one vacant listing had a green pool. Much of the landcaping was elaborate and high-maintenance.
-Several had the original pink/maroon trim and beige/tan trim classic Daltile in the bathroom(s) and matching fixtures (circa 1950’s).
-MANY had 40+ year-old carpeting throughout, even kitchen carpeting, both (1970’s era) high/low plush in orange/brown and avocado/gold … even shag carpeting!
Most of the kitchens were only partially remodeled (meaning newer appls usually but maybe newer countertops but the old cabinets and flooring were left). I saw SEVERAL listings with plywood kitchen cabinets with their (intrusive) black hammered hinges and knobs of the era! Some had been painted over.
Most of the window coverings were castoff curtains the realtor threw up there and tied in a knot (on a vacant “staged” house) or very heavy multi-layered elaborate custom drapes with cornice boards and swags (circa 1970’s – ’80’s).
A few houses had grab bars and other bathroom modifications suggesting that senior citizens (or their estate) were the sellers.
Okay, so we’ve got a few dozen SFR listings on large lots just 10-15 mins from Cupertino or Sunnyvale (freeway optional) with some virtually at the foot of the redwood forest which have been owned for decades by the same owner (or their heir). Of course, I’m still able-bodied, but if I owned (or inherited) one of these properties (condition be damned) I’d by happy to pay the $850 annual taxes (+2% per year) and live there until I die. But that’s just me. Perhaps most of these sellers ARE now alone, sick/incapacitated (or both) and can no longer take care of the property.
I’m now of the opinion that there must be a “tipping point” where the gain (if they are able to successfully sell) is so great that, as a prospective senior-citizen seller, it is not worth keeping your ~$850 annual tax bill anymore.
Evidenced by a number of those listings now sitting on the market 47-68 days (an anomaly for this region), I DO believe that seniors (and their heirs) are now attempting to “test the market” to see how much someone will actually pay for what amounts to a gut/remodel (for most of today’s buyers) on a good-sized lot in their area. This tells me that even those buyers who can afford to buy these properties around there are letting them sit at the current asking prices. Obviously, a seller who thinks they might get $1.6M++ for a property they paid ~$32K for in 1961 (and has done little to the property over their years of ownership) is looking for a windfall to help fund the rest of their retirement or deposit into their “estate.” Or their “heir” is looking to fund their own retirement because they were unable to save enough themselves lol.
When a SD owner-occupant of a dated (even run down) SD house can only recover $300-$500K upon sale and their annual taxes are $850, it probably isn’t worth it to them to sell because they don’t know how much longer they’re going to live and they have to live somewhere. Also, storage units cost about $275 mo apiece and if one needs several of them (because they can’t bring themselves to get rid of anything) it can get pricey, so they decide to use their old (now vacant) home for storage. It’s more beneficial for them to just let their kid(s) deal with the house when the time comes. But if a similarly-situated senior citizen might instead recover $1.5-$2M upon sale of their longtime home, that’s a game changer. That’s plenty of money to pay one of their kids “rent” into eternity or their choices are exponentially increased as to where they could spend their remaining years.
I “saved” a few of these listings so I can monitor what they actually sell for and how long it took for them to sell. This was a very eye-opening “experiment” for me.
A little further up the coast (Half Moon Bay and Pacifica in SM Co) I also found 3-4 of what I thought were pretty good deals on larger lots listed in the $700’s today. These small “cities” are “off the beaten path” on the other side of the mountain range from SV and can be difficult and time-consuming to commute in/out of for SV worker-bees, especially when it rains. Hence, it seems some pretty good deals can still be found in there. I can’t currently qualify to buy into one of those areas but I sure wish I could put them on my retirement “short list.” :=]
