B-man, I sincerely hope you are right. And until 18 mos ago, I had been living my life under the assumption that the US would experience a slow, steady decline — certainly not something that I would witness in my lifetime. I’ve invested too much of my life and finances in this country and its institutions; it’s certainly not my preference to see it all go to crap.
But just consider how rapidly our decline has been developing lately: the price of oil ($22 in 2002); gold ($250 in 2002); the dollar’s decline (enough said – it’s dropped most 5% in the past 3 months alone!) The scope and pace of these changes simply do not indicate that we have 20-30 more years of “power” left. More frightening: the pace is not slowing. If anything, it is ACCELERATING.
And correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the Soviet Union collapsed in 20 years. Wasn’t it more along the lines of 10? I distinctly recall growing up with the threat of a nuclear Soviet when I was in high school in 1982, and by the time I graduated from law school in 1991, Russia had become a toothless tiger — irrelevant in world affairs. And what do you know? 20 years later, they are making a bid to re-establish themselves as a political and economic force. Let’s see: 1984 to 2007: power to decline to rising power again.
Change can happen — quickly.
Unlike Russia, however, the US has virtually stripped itself of oil, the natural resource that has re-ignited Russia’s wealth. I’m not sure what would re-ignite our growth, especially give the domestic demands like retirement and social security that you cited.
Also, the fact that others (i.e. those other than Americans) will be hurt severely when the US collapses does not preclude a swift collapse. Resistance is inevitably futile to the laws of economics.
Recall that prior to the Great Depression, the US was playing the role of China today, attempting to prop up an ailing UK with exports and cash. The US most certainly didn’t want the UK to tumble from power; we were not ready to assume the help of world empire. And when the UK tumbled and the Great Depression was triggered, EVERYONE suffered. Despite our valiant attempts to forestall the inevitable, the inevitable happened. And out of the ashes of the Great Depression the US rose to power and began to establish the dollar as the world’s new reserve currency over the Pound. It doesn’t matter what the players want; in the end, no matter how hard we may try to forestall the inevitable, we must reckon with the forces of economics.l And the longer we put off the inevitable, I believe harder or faster the fall. Much like pressure that builds up in a water hose when the neck is crimped. The longer the pressure builds up, the faster it all comes out.
Bottom line, no one thinks the US is going to vanish from the face of the Earth. Civilizations usually don’t disappear (with the exception fo the Mayans and those unfortunate folks on Easter Island). But I think we have to be mindful as JWM noted, that the rate of collapse may be actually be different than what we have experienced in the past, particularly since we now have a global economy and a chain reaction of events can be set off in a matter of days, weeks or months. Hundreds or thousands of years ago, countries gradually lost power over decades or longer because it took so much longer for them to amass the manpower necedssary to conquer and settle a territory, or to communicate information, or to feel the effects of changes to their economy throughout their country. And economies were relatively independent of one another.
But all that has changed now. BTW, have you ever seen “Rollover?” I’m not a big fan of Kris Kristofferson or Jane Fonda, but I watched it again recently, and damn! That movie was truly ahead of its time. Economic devastation can occur in the blink of an eye under the right circumstances. In short, the movie depicts what would happen if the Saudis (read: China in 2007) were to sell a fraction of their dollar reserves. The the results are catastrophic and immediate. Of course, it’s just a movie — but food for thought, nonetheless.
I might add that if this administration is foolish enough to go to Iran, the timetable for collapse will certainly accelerate, as we can surely not win militarily, nor do we have the funds to support another war. The last thing we need is for the world to publicly witness another resounding military defeat in the face of an economy that is admittedly now in severe deterioration. At that point, the Emperor will surely have no clothes. The US has remained Top Dog for the past half century because (a) we had a stable currency (b) with no viable alternative and (c) we had the military means to attack or defend anyone to adjust the world order as we saw fit. (a) and (b) are clearly things of the past. Our future as a world power depends on (c). Iraq has called that into serious question; events in Iran will provide a decisive answer.
