[quote=asianautica]You’re totally right SD R. Seems like the threshold is somewhere around 450-600k, regardless of the zip code. Look at the active/pending ratio for <$450k in MM, that's some crazy #.[/quote]
Look at it this way. Using 10% down and 45% DTI,
500k house = 95k income
650k house = 125k income
800k house = 150k income
950k house = 195k income
and that's if there's no MR. Add 10-15k to account for MR.
The pool of eligible buyers shrinks rapidly above 100k mark. You need a big income or a lot of cash. Outside high-tech, few jobs pay more than 60-80k, especially to first time homebuyers (median age: 33).
That is the absolute minimum income needed to qualify for a loan. In reality, 45% gross DTI is 52-55% net DTI. Real estate mania is over, and most people would balk at the idea of spending more than half of their after-tax income on housing. A sensible scenario (housing payments that total 40% of after-tax income) would go like this
500k house = 135k income
650k house = 175k income
800k house = 215k income
950k house = 285k income
so it's pretty clear that current coastal prices can't be sustained without large numbers of move-up buyers with briefcases full of cash. Move-up buyers do exist, but they are in short supply. Thus low pending numbers.
ACS estimates that only 15% of all renter households in the county have incomes above 100k. There are quite a few high-income people, but most of them already own.
SD R: can you pull active numbers by asking price for all of San Diego county, with 100k resolution?
