Asianautica: I know what you mean, whether it’s bottom plus 10%, or x%, we’ll be in the dark until a long period has elapsed.
Powayseller: Your dictum I believe I can time the real estate market is a precious little gem! Now, seriously, the last time the market hit bottom was 1996, but we didn’t know that until the 1998 summer house buying season was over. Perhaps it took until the spring of 1999 for smart people to realize that 1996 had been the bottom. And even then, no one was 100% sure because appreciation in 1998-2001 wasn’t as steady as in 2002-2005. And you are telling us that you will know for sure when the bottom was only 2-3 months after the fact? That’s tantamount to claiming supernatural powers. You should run your ideas by John Talbott, but he’ll probably tell you the same thing.
Medieval chemists dreamed of manufacturing gold (didn’t work). Some time later, physicists dreamed of building perpetual moving machines (didn’t work). Today we dream of being able to time the real estate market. And that’s fine, as long as we know that it’s just a dream.
