Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.
Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand
Lower demand + pent up inventory =
See how easy this is[/quote]
Actually, despite record unemployment and the other factors you mentioned, demand was significantly higher in 2009 than the preceding two years, due to a huge improvement in affordability.
If I integrate in my common sense that in some places it might be cheaper to own than rent, I see a limit to pricing downside. Granted, as rents slide (impacted by employment) this downside bar may slide lower.
My posts here reflect being fed up by shadow inventory zealots (not saying you are one, since you did point out at least some factors affecting demand) tend to leave out, forget or otherwise ignore the other side of the supply-demand relationship.
