Whew. You scared me there for a minute. I ran out to see if I could still get gas for $3 a gallon and I can. Guess it isn’t here yet. Production may be near peak, but like I said earlier, price dynamics, replacements, and demand-side changes could have a major impact on availability.
In my last post, I mention Jay Forrester. He has been looking at this problem since 1969. Not really going to sneak up on him. World governments know it is going to happen and have for years. I’m loath to put my faith in them over entrepreneurs.
That big oil has “been the biggest impediment to replacing it’s number one product” is a clear sign that we aren’t “there” yet. When they realize their number one product is in jeopardy, they’ll do something about it, or a competitor will. (I just hope the ones who miss the opporunity go bankrupt and aren’t bailed out !).
[quote=Arraya]Looking at the predicament through an economic-monetary lens limits your scope of thought[/quote]
You said that to the wrong person. I speak both thermodynamics and economics – with a BS in Elec. Eng and MS in Engineering Economic Systems, not many people in the world are better suited to understand the relationship between science, technology, economics and business.
It is virutally impossible for me to separate technological solutions and economic solutions. They are one and the same. ‘Cept it is economics that drives solutions into existence, and those economics are not yet upon us. Peak Oil may or may not be here, but the economic drivers are not. We’ll still be having this same discussion in 2020 and possibly 2030.
I think replacements and demand reduction will carry us longer than most expect, though if you notice my comments about Forrester’s models, you’ll see I think there has to be a dark age where population is reduced. I’m 42. I don’t think I’ll see it.
The thing is, no matter how economists view the world, people make economics happen no matter what. People collectively make millions of decisions made every day. Even now, thousands of crackpots are trying to invent solutions to the problem. I have faith in them.
[quote=Arraya]No amount of alternatives[/quote]
Certainly we are dealing with a finite amount of oil, so some amount of alternatives would suffice. But, the energy density of oil is impossible to match.
