Andy, the last sale on that house was in August of 1996. That is pretty much a month or two before the bottom of the last real estate bust. Take that value, and adjust for inflation (google “inflation calculator”), to get a bottom value that it could get to in the next year or two (or three).
I get a value of $230k for the absolute bottom. Adjust upwards for the more diverse economy in San Diego, the fact that Poway is not considered “the sticks” as much anymore, the fact that we aren’t at the bottom yet, and for the recent bounce in the market.
Personally, I wouldn’t buy that house for anything in the $400k range. Maybe somewhere in the $300ks, understanding that I could still lose another $100k in value.
