[quote=AN]It’s possible some of the 2000 in 2003-2006 could be above norm, but how can you explain the 2000 number in 1999-2001? As sdr just posted, even in 1997-1998, it was higher than 1300. It was only less than that in 1996 (which was at the bottom of the last cycle). Total housing stock went up A LOT compare to 1996-1999, yet closings went down to 1996 level. The only conclusion I can draw from that is, people who bought in that area can and are holding on until they get the price they want. Which explains the lack of supply and therefore, the lack of closings.[/quote]
Remember that 1997/1998-2001 marked the beginning of the bubble. People were already standing in lines to buy houses in 1999/2000 here.
IMHO, the reason people are “holding on” here is because the govt has enabled and encouraged them to do so (free rent, anyone?). We live here, and know plenty of distressed situations. The low end was allowed to fall ~40-60% because all the govt manipulation wasn’t in place at the time they were hit (real estate declines always moves in waves, usually from the least desirable to the most desirable).
Not only that, but if sellers purchased before the bubble (pre-2001), then they still have plenty of equity and can easily sell. They have no need to “hold on” for bubble prices, as most of them never anticipated getting those prices until this decade brought idiots with their “toxic” loans.
